Tabb Forum: May Interim Data Trends: Where the Economy Stands

Read the full article on Tabb Forum.


Global economic surprises suggest that GDP growth could be better than feared, and investors can gain insight into the state of the domestic and international economy from retailers, automakers, and financial trading hub companies this week, writes Christine Short, VP Research at Wall Street Horizon. Forming a mosaic on the state of markets at the macro and micro levels is critical to managing risk as volatility ticks back up, Ms. Short says.

It’s the ever-looming recession. Traders have been waiting for signs that the domestic economy is cooling, but while one indicator here or there reveals weakness, economic surprises have generally been on the positive side lately. Last week, the global read on broad global manufacturing, services, and consumer activity showed some of the best figures (relative to expectations) in months. As the ‘economic surprise index’ baffles prognosticators, the Federal Reserve is watching with a hawkish eye. Meanwhile, corporate uncertainty just hit a 3-quarter high according to Wall Street Horizon’s proprietary data.