Where are they now? Half of companies profiled with off-trend Q2 2023 earnings dates performed as our data indicated

During the Q2 2023 earnings season we profiled 6 companies that had unusual earnings dates, which can serve as a foreshadowing of what an upcoming report might reveal, and therefore be an indicator of corporate financial health. Half of those companies' stocks reacted as we expected, using the Wall Street Horizon DateBreaks Factor logic.* This is lower than our average success rate of around 67%, but a plethora of factors such as management changes and surprising guidance made last quarter a mixed bag. Before we head into the third quarter earnings season next week, we take a look back at those six names and how they performed in the 2-day post-earnings drift following their announcement.

Salesforce (CRM) - Followed Reverse Logic
Company Confirmed Report Date: Wednesday, August 30, AMC
Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Wednesday, August 23, BMO
DateBreaks Factor: -2*

Salesforce crossed our radar ahead of their Q2 report with a confirmed earnings date that was outside of their historical range. On August 9, CRM announced they would report Q2 2023 earnings on Wednesday, August 30 after market close. That was a week later than expected, and the latest they’ve reported for Q2 in 7 years, but still kept with the trend of reporting on a Wednesday in the 35th week of the year. 

Results: Salesforce ended up beating both EPS (actual: $2.12, est: $1.90**) and revenue expectations (actual: $8.6B, est: $8.53B**). They also increased its full-year forecast, now expecting EPS in the range of $8.04 - $8.06 and revenues of $34.7B - $34.8B, that’s up from EPS guidance of $7.41 - $7.43 and revenue guidance of $34.5 - $34.7B given in May. Despite stellar results, CFO Amy Weaver still spoke of the uncertain economy and headwinds such as softening demand in the US, as well as “elongated sales cycles, additional deal approval layers, and deal compression in our subscription and support and professional services businesses.” The stock rose 4.5%*** in the 2-day post-earnings drift. 

United Parcel Services (UPS) - Followed Expected Logic
Company Confirmed Report Date: Tuesday, August 8, BMO
Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Tuesday, July 25, BMO
DateBreaks Factor: -3*

On July 11 UPS set a Q2 2023 earnings report date of Tuesday, August 8. This was nearly two weeks later than expected. Since 2006,  UPS has reported Q2 results in the 30th or 31st week of the year, typically from July 23 - July 30. This would be the first report in the 32nd week of the year, and the latest report date in our 17 year history. The late earnings date announcement came as uncertainty loomed around an impending worker strike.

Results: When UPS reported on August 8, they surpassed EPS expectations by $0.05 but missed revenues (actual: $22B, est: $23B**). But what really tanked their stock were the cuts to its full-year revenue and margin forecasts due to the contract deal made with their Teamsters union on July 25 that helped to deter a strike but will impact future volumes. The stock fell 1%*** over the following two days.

Hasbro (HAS) - Followed Expected Logic
Company Confirmed Report Date: Thursday, August 3, BMO
Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Thursday, July 27, BMO
DateBreaks Factor: -2*

On July 19, Hasbro set a Q2 2023 report date of Thursday, August 3. This was a week later than expected, and their latest Q2 report date since we began collecting data in 2006. The delayed date made sense as consumers continued to hesitate on discretionary purchases such as toys.

Results: Hasbro missed EPS expectations by $0.07 and slightly beat revenue estimates (actual: $1.21B, est: $1.11B**). For the full-year HAS estimates YoY revenues will drop 3-6%. As a result, the stock dropped 1.3%*** in the days following the report. 

Zillow Group (ZG) - Followed Expected Logic
Company Confirmed Report Date: Wednesday, August 2, AMC
Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Thursday, August 3, AMC
DateBreaks Factor: 3*

Zillow released Q2 2023 results on Wednesday, August 2. While this was only a day earlier than anticipated, it was the first time in three years that they reported on a Wednesday after a Thursday trend, and the first time they reported in the 31st week of the year. 

Results: Zillow surpassed both EPS (actual: $0.39, est: 0.19**) and revenue (actual: $506M, est: $473M**) expectations in part due to momentum in rental revenues, even as residential revenues declined. The stock eked up 1%*** in the post 2-day drift. 

Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH) - Followed Reverse Logic
Company Confirmed Report Date: Tuesday, August 1, BMO
Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Tuesday, August 8, BMO
DateBreaks Factor: 3*

Unlike the previous two examples, Norwegian Cruise Lines confirmed an earlier than usual report date which typically signals that a company will report good news on their earnings call. On July 20, NCLH confirmed a Q2 2023 report date of Tuesday, August 1, a full week earlier than usual. For the last 8 years NCLH has reported Q2 results in the 32nd or even 33rd week of the year, typically from August 4 - 9. This was the first time they have released Q2 results in the 31st week of the year since 2014.

Results: As our data indicated, NCLH did share some very good news on their Q2 call, surpassing top (actual: $2.21B, est: $2.17B**) and bottom-line (actual: $0.30, est: 0.26**) expectations thanks to robust consumer demand and strong bookings which was also noted by other cruise liners throughout the quarter. However, it was lower-than-expected Q3 EPS guidance that investors latched onto. NCLH expects Q3 EPS to come in at $0.70, below the $0.80 anticipated from the sell-side. As such the stock fell 13%*** in the two days following the report.

Union Pacific (UNP) - Followed Reverse Logic
Company Confirmed Report Date: Wednesday, July 26, BMO
Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Thursday, July 20, BMO
DateBreaks Factor: -2*

Union Pacific reported Q2 2023 results on Wednesday, July 26. This was a week later than expected, and their latest report date in 10 years, but it’s also the first time they didn’t report on a Thursday. The later than expected report date signaled bad news on the upcoming report, which made sense given the headwinds within freight and logistics. The so-called “freight recession” impacted a variety of names in the logistics, transportation, trucking and rail space this summer. 

Results: Sure enough when UNP reported they missed on massively on both EPS (actual: $2.57, est: $2.74**) and sales (actual: $5.96B, est: $6.1B**). Despite disappointing results, it was the naming of a new CEO that encouraged investors to take the stock higher. In August, Jim Vena succeeded Lance Fritz as CEO. As a result of this news, the stock rose 7%*** in the two days following the earnings report. 

The Bottom Line

Tracking earnings date delays and advancements can give investors clues about how a company will perform after an earnings announcement, especially when used in conjunction with other bespoke data sets. Tune in for Q3 2023 earnings season, which begins with reports from the big banks on October 13, to see which companies are sending signals to the markets through earnings date changes. 

* Wall Street Horizon DateBreaks Factor: statistical measurement of how an earnings date (confirmed or revised) compares to the reporting company's 5-year trend for the same quarter. Negative means the earnings date is confirmed to be later than historical average while Positive is earlier.

**EPS and Revenue estimates provided by FactSet

*** Price change based on the delta between the close before the report and the close two days after the report.