The Short List - Where are they now? 60% companies with off-trend Q4 earnings dates performed as our data indicated

During the Q4 earnings season we profiled 12 companies that had unusual earnings dates which can serve as a foreshadowing of what an upcoming report might reveal, and therefore be an indicator of financial health. Sixty-percent of those companies' stocks reacted as we expected, using the Wall Street Horizon DateBreaks Factor logic.* This is lower than results from the prior two earnings seasons (when this feature commenced), as volatile markets rocked by the Omicron variant, inflation and the Russia-Ukraine crisis impacted stock values more than quarterly results. Below we review all 12 names and how they performed in the five days following their announcement.

Boyd Gaming Corp (BYD) - Followed Expected Logic

• Company Confirmed Report Date: Thursday, February 3, AMC
• Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Tuesday, February 15 
• Z-Score: -5.19
• DateBreaks Factor: +3*

We flagged Boyd ahead of their Q4 report because they confirmed an unusual earnings date, outside of the historical date range in which we’ve typically seen them report. BYD tends to release CQ4 results between February 16 - March 3, and have done so for the last 15 years. However, this year they confirmed they would be announcing nearly 2 weeks early on February 3. According to academic research, an earlier than usual earnings date often indicates good news will be announced. 

Results: 

Boyd Gaming reported Q4 results that surpassed expectations on both the top (actual: $879.84M, est: $838.27M**) and bottom-line (actual: $1.35, est: $1.25**). This resulted in a price increase of 20.1%.*** 

Amgen Inc. (AMGN) - Followed Expected Logic

• Company Confirmed Report Date: Monday, February 7, AMC
• Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Tuesday, February 1
• Z-Score: 3.35
• DateBreaks Factor: -3*

Amgen crossed our rader ahead of their Q4 report with a confirmed earnings date that was outside of their historical range. AMGN has reported Q2 results between Jan 23 - Feb 2 for the last 15 years. However, this quarter they confirmed they would be announcing nearly one week later than our projected date of February 1. The delayed earnings date indicated a negative report ahead. 

Results: 

Amgen ended up missing revenue expectations (actual: $6.846B, est: $6.869B**) yet beating profit estimates (actual: $4.36, est: $4.04**). The mixed results lead to an initial pop in the stock after the report, with the price eventually settling down 2%*** in the 5-day post earnings period.

Pfizer Inc. (PFE) - Followed Expected Logic

• Company Confirmed Report Date: Tuesday, February 8, AMC
• Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Tuesday, February 1
• Z-Score: 4.03
• DateBreaks Factor: -3*

Pfizer also had a report date that was later than their historical average. PFE typically reports Q4 results on the last Tuesday of January, or the first Tuesday of February. Their historical date range is January 22 - February 3. On December 28 the company issued a press release stating that Q4 results would be released on February 8, a week later than we had estimated. As such we anticipated worse-than-expected results on earnings day.  

Results:

Similarly to Amgen, Pfizer also beat on the bottom-line (actual: $1.08, est: $0.87**), but missed significantly on the top-line (actual: $23.838B, est: $24.157B**). This resulted in a price decrease of 7.5%.*** 

Harley Davidson (HOG) - Followed Reverse Logic

• Company Confirmed Report Date: Tuesday, February 8, AMC
• Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Wednesday, February 2
• Z-Score: 4.72
• DateBreaks Factor: -3*

Harley Davidson got our attention when they confirmed a Q4 earnings date that was nearly a week outside of their historical range. HOG has reported Q4 results between January 18 - Feb 2 for the last 15 years, typically on a Tuesday. However, this quarter they confirmed they would be announcing on February 8. 

Results: 

When Harley Davidson reported, they beat on EPS (actual: $0.15, est: -$0.35**) and on revenues (actual: $816.02M, est: $665.51M**). Results were driven by the success of HOG’s 5-year strategic plan “Hardwire” which resulted in increased shipments and favorable motorcycle unit mix throughout 2021. The stock rose 21.7%*** in the post-earnings period.

Crocs, Inc. (CROX) - Followed Reverse Logic

• Company Confirmed Report Date: Wednesday, February 16, BMO
• Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Tuesday, February 22
• Z-Score: -5.03
• DateBreaks Factor: +3*

This is not Croc's first time confirming an earlier than usual earnings date. In fact, for the Q4 2020 earnings season Crocs similarly moved their report two days earlier, resulting in a DateBreaks Factor of 3. For Q4 2021 CROX set a report date of February 16, four days earlier than usual, after reporting in a range of February 16 - March 1 since 2007. 

Results:

Despite surpassing expectations on the top (actual: $586.63M, est: $585.02M**) and bottom-line (actual: $2.15, est: $1.98**), the price steadily declined after the report due to lower revenue guidance for Q1. In the 5-day post-earnings period shares fell 26.9%.***

AMC Networks (AMCX) - Followed Reverse Logic

• Company Confirmed Report Date: Wednesday, February 16, BMO
• Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Thursday, February 24
• Z-Score: -4.76
• DateBreaks Factor: +3*

AMC Networks (not meme stock AMC Entertainment!) confirmed a Q4 earnings date that was over a week earlier than usual. They have historically reported Q4 results anywhere from February 23 - March 15, with no day of the week trend. On  February 1 the company confirmed they would report on February 16, suggesting results may surprise to the upside. 

Results: 

Despite posting EPS that were more than double what Wall Street was expecting (actual: $0.54, est: $0.23**) and revenues that came in nearly 5% ahead of estimates and helped boost the full-year total to a record (actual: $803.71M, est: $767.27M**), the stock proceeded to fall 16.2%*** in the days after the report. This was mostly a result of stiff competition from other streaming platforms that announced results that week, mainly ViacomCBS and Discovery, which both noted they would be massively ramping up their budgets for new content. 

Sealed Air Corp (SEE) - Followed Reverse Logic

• Company Confirmed Report Date: Thursday, February 17, BMO
• Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Tuesday, February 8
• Z-Score: 5.66
• DateBreaks Factor: -3*

For the last 15 years, Sealed Air has reported Q4 earnings results from January 24 - February 10 (with the exception of Q4 2012 when they reported on Feb 19), typically on a Tuesday or Thursday. On January 13 the company confirmed they would report on February 17, over a week later than we had anticipated based on their historical reporting range, suggesting there may be disappointing results shared on the upcoming call. 

Results:

Sure enough, when SEE reported on February 17 they did announce a penny miss on EPS (actual: $1.12, est: $1.13**), keep in mind companies were getting punished more than usual for misses in Q4. In spite of not clearing the bar on the bottom-line, top-line results came in slightly higher than expected (actual: $1.532B, est: $1.489B**) and the stock went on to increase 9.5%*** in the post-earnings period. 

Park Hotels and Resorts (PK) - Followed Expected Logic

• Company Confirmed Report Date: Thursday, February 17, AMC
• Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Thursday, February 24
• Z-Score: -5.7
• DateBreaks Factor: +3*

Since its spin-off from Hilton Worldwide in 2017, Park Hotels & Resorts has reported Q4 earnings results in a tight range, from February 25 - March 1. On January 10 the company confirmed they would report on February 17, one week earlier than we had anticipated based on their historical reporting range, suggesting there may be good news shared on the upcoming call. 

Results: 

Park Hotels and Resorts is a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), they are usually measured by their Funds From Operations (FFO) and not EPS. PK announced FFO for Q4 came in at $0.05 per share, well ahead of the $0.02** expectation. Revenues of $451M beat sell-side estimates by almost $15M. As a result the stock ticked up 4%*** in the days after the report. 

eBay, Inc. (EBAY) - Followed Expected Logic

• Company Confirmed Report Date: Wednesday, February 23, AMC
• Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Wednesday, February 2
• Z-Score: 7.91
• DateBreaks Factor: -3*

This is not eBay’s first time on our outlier list. In Q2 2021 the ecommerce company also announced an earnings date that was two weeks later than usual. Since 2006, eBay has reported Q4 earnings results in a range from January 18 -  February 3, typically on a Tuesday or Wednesday. As such we set a report date of February 2. On January 24 the company confirmed they would report on February 23, three weeks later than we had anticipated based on their historical reporting range, suggesting there may be bad news shared on the upcoming call. 

Results:

While reported results from eBay came in ahead of expectations on EPS (actual: $1.05, est: $0.99**) and just slightly ahead on revenues (actual: $2.613B, est: $2.603B**), the company warned of slowing growth in the year ahead as it deals with a declining customer base due to the pent-up demand for brick and mortar shopping post the COVID-19 pandemic. As such the stock fell 5.7%*** in the days following the report. 

Molson Coors Brewing Co (TAP) - Followed Expected Logic

• Company Confirmed Report Date: Wednesday, February 23, BMO
• Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Thursday, February 10
• Z-Score: 7.81
• DateBreaks Factor: -3*

Molson Coors Brewing has historically reported Q4 results anywhere from February 9 - 16, with no day of the week trend. As such we set a report date of February 10. On  January 19 the company confirmed they would report on February 23, two weeks later than we had anticipated, suggesting results for the quarter may surprise to the downside. 

Results:

As Wall Street Horizon anticipated, profits for TAP came in well below Wall Street estimates for Q4 (actual: $0.81, est: $0.86**). Even better-than-expected revenues of $2.619B (vs est. $2.538B**) couldn’t save the beverage company. Investors took the stock down 8.9%***

Hormel Foods (HRL) - Followed Reverse Logic 

• Company Confirmed Report Date: Tuesday, March 1, BMO
• Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Thursday, February 17
• Z-Score: 3.45
• DateBreaks Factor: -3*

Since 2007, Hormel has reported Q4 earnings results in a range from February 15 -  23, typically on a Tuesday or Thursday. As such we set a report date of February 17. On February 7 the company confirmed they would report on March 1, eight days later than we had anticipated based on their historical reporting range, suggesting there may be bad news shared on the upcoming call. 

Results:

There’s no doubt HRL was feeling the squeeze of inflation in Q4, as many of its consumer staples peers have reported, reporting just in-line on EPS (actual: $0.44, est: $0.44**) and eking out a slight beat on revenues (actual: $3.044B, est: $2.920B**). The company kept investors positive by reaffirming their 2022 outlook based on a favorable demand environment, strong branding and pricing power. As such the stock shot up 9.4%*** after the report. 

CarParts.com (PRTS) - Followed Expected Logic

• Company Confirmed Report Date: Tuesday, March 1, AMC
• Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Monday, March 7
• Z-Score: -3.31
• DateBreaks Factor: +3*

For the last eight years CarParts.com has reported Q4 results during the second week of March (6th - 9th), with no day of the week trend. As such we set a report date of March 7. On February 8 the company confirmed they would report on March 1, a week earlier than we had anticipated, suggesting results for the quarter may surprise to the upside. 

Results: 

PRTS beat both on the top (actual: $138.261M, est: $125.21M**) and bottom-line (actual: -$0.10, est: -$0.11**) in Q4, as strength in used cars due to supply-chain disruptions from the pandemic continues to drive value. The stock rose 12.5%*** in the days after reporting. 

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* Wall Street Horizon DateBreaks Factor: statistical measurement of how an earnings date (confirmed or revised) compares to the reporting company's 5-year trend for the same quarter. Negative means the earnings date is confirmed to be later than historical average while Positive is earlier.

**EPS and Revenue estimates provided by FactSet

*** Price change based on the highest or lowest point the stock reaches within the 5 days before and after reporting quarterly earnings results. Delta calculated from closing price.