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What’s on the horizon for these 8 companies poised to benefit from pent up consumer demand

Events on the Horizon

As the worst of the severe winter weather is (hopefully) behind us at this point, and COVID cases improve nation-wide in conjunction with broader vaccine distribution and the addition of a third FDA approved vaccination from Johnson & Johnson, we wanted to take a look at upcoming events for companies that many analysts believe are poised to benefit from pent up consumer demand “when this is all over.”

Not surprisingly, after a year of social distancing, many of these names are travel-related as people look to reconnect with friends and family, or just get away. Just this morning Expedia Group released a new survey indicating Americans plan on travelling more in 2021, and are prepared to spend an average of $3500 to do so. This bodes well for many of the following industries.

Disney + Uber

Disney and Uber differ from the other strictly travel related names on this list as they both have businesses that greatly prospered during the last year, at the expense of segments that were very negatively impacted due to COVID. Looking ahead, both seem active on the conference scene which is another sign that things are continuing to improve for both companies.

In the last two quarters strength in the Disney+ streaming service has helped offset weakness in parks which were closed from mid-March through mid-July and movie releases as theaters around the country are still not fully open. During the Q4 conference call, CEO Bob Chapek referenced Dr. Anthony Fauci’s prediction that anyone wanting to be vaccinated would be able to by April, calling this a “game changer” for their parks segment. Not to mention movie theaters are gradually opening with more capacity, and Disney just took home a handful of Golden Globes last night for Nomadland, The US vs. Billie Holiday, and Soul, with anticipated releases such as Marvel’s Black Widow on the horizon.

Disney (DIS)

In the last 3 months:
December 1 - Gartner Marketing Symposium/Xpo 2020, Americas, speaker Bob Iger, Executive Chairman
December 4 - Release date for Nomadland, Wander
December 10 - The Walt Disney Company Investor Day (Virtual) 2020
January 26 - Movie release of Wrong Turn (Limited) and Nomadland (IMAX)
February 11 - Q4 Earnings Report and conference call
February 19 - Video release of Nomadland
February 26 - Video release of The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Coming up:
March 1 - 4 - Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom TMT Conference 2021, speaker Bob Chapek, CEO
March 9 - Annual shareholder meeting
Movie releases
May 4 - Q1 earnings report and conference call (estimated)
May 7 - Movie release of Marvel Studios Black Widow

Similar to Disney, Uber’s food delivery segment UberEats has been outperforming and offsetting losses from its ride-sharing business. However, as the food delivery business continues to boom, ride-sharing slowly recovers. While timing for a full recovery is unknown, CEO Dara Khosrowshahi said on the Q4 earnings call that he is concerned Uber might not have enough drivers to meet demand he expects to encounter in the mobility segment as the pandemic concerns fade.

Uber (UBER)

In the last 3 months:
December 10 - Barclays Global Technology, Media and Telecommunications Conference 2020, speaker Nelson Chai, CFO
February 10 - Q4 Earnings Report and conference call

Upcoming:
March 1 - 4 : Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom TMT Conference 2021, speaker Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO
May 6 - Q1 earnings report and conference call (estimated)

The OTAs

The gradual return of travel also benefits the online travel agents (OTAs), something investors seem to be betting on as well with shares of Booking Holdings and Expedia Group rising 8% and 22%, respectively YTD. Airbnb is also on this list, as there is some competition there within the “alternative to hotel” offerings, expected to remain more desirable than hotels.

Booking Holdings (BKNG)

In the last 3 months:
December 3 - NASDAQ 43rd Investor Conference 2020, speaker David Goulden, CFO
February 24 - Q4 Earnings Report and conference call

Coming up:
May 6 - Q1 earnings report and conference call (estimated)

Expedia Group (EXPE)

In the last 3 months:
February 11 - Q4 Earnings Report and conference call

Coming up:
March 1 - 4 - Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom TMT Conference 2021, speaker Peter Kern, President and CEO
May 6 - Q1 earnings report and conference call (estimated)

Airbnb (ABNB)

In the last 3 months:
December 10: Public offering date, $68.00 offer price
January 14 - Reuters NEXT Summit 2021, speaker Brian Chesky, CEO
February 25 - Q4 Earnings Report and conference call

Coming up:
May 25 - Q1 earnings report and conference call (estimated)
June 7 - IPO lock-up expiration date

The Airlines

It seems logical that most airline carriers are focused on domestic travel for the remainder of 2021. On their Q4 call, Delta CEO, Ed Bastian said “The U.S. is our focus for the rest of the year. I don’t see international travel coming back in any meaningful form for probably another 12 months; maybe spring 2022 will be the real start.”

While Delta and other large international carriers such as American Airlines and United Airlines are all likely to take this approach, the domestic airlines such as Jetblue, Southwest and Spirit are in a better position to do so as they don’t rely on revenue from international travel.

All of the aforementioned airlines initiated secondary offerings in the last quarter as they try to stay afloat and ride this thing out. They are trying to raise as much cash as possible as they don’t know when travel will return or passengers will feel comfortable. Secondary offerings are both positive and negative for shareholders. Positive in that having the additional cash makes it possible for airlines to survive the crisis, negative in that their shares will now be diluted. Not to mention the work the airlines will have to do to fix up their balance sheets due to the massive amounts of debt they’ve had to take on in the last year.  

JetBlue Airways (JBLU)

In the last 3 months:
December 1 - Commencement Date for Secondary offering of 35,000,000 shares
January 28 - Q4 Earnings Report and conference call

Coming up:
May 6 - Q1 earnings report and conference call (estimated)

Southwest  Airlines (LUV)

In the last 3 months:
December 2: Credit Suisse 8th Annual Industrials Conference 2020
January 13 - Q4 earnings date changed to 1/28/2021 from 1/21/2021
January 28 - Q4 earnings report and conference call
February 8 - Announcement Date for Southwest Airlines Secondary offering

Coming up:
April 22 - Q1 earnings report and conference call (estimated)

Spirit Airlines (SAVE)

In the last 3 months:
December 2 - Credit Suisse 8th Annual Industrials Conference 2020
February 10 - Q4 Earnings Report and conference call
February 11 - Announcement Date for Spirit Airlines, Inc. Secondary offering
 
Coming up:
May 5 - Q1 earnings report and conference call (estimated)